Our Agency's Prediction Chart
This month has been particularly difficult. I was relieved when the January referrals came that we were still on track to be the April batch...a little worried that they arrived in February. It's only a few days but in the big picture it appears the CCAA could be extending families Waits, in a different and far less predictable fashion. It effects us little but for other families logged in, in 2006 and 2007 it brings more uncertainty than before.
Where we are on our agency prediction chart is what is most important to me as they chart every facet of the process down to nearly the minute families get their pictures.
Some years the CCAA has sent an extra batch right before Chinese New Year (CNY was yesterday so we can X that), and last year they sent one batch on February 28. The CCAA has this week off to celebrate their new year and our agency's, just published, chart says that the February referrals will arrive in March. Shoot.
Our wonderful agency puts out their chart of predictions with an Astrix at the end of every prediction sentence. And when I talk with them on the phone, they end or begin every sentence with 'there is no way to be certain'. I whole heartedly agree with them. It is my nature to seek out the pattern and quite frankly CCAA has only 2 identifiable patterns.
1. For 14 years CCAA has sent Chinese children to the USA nearly every month.
2. The CCAA has no pattern.
The CCAA had sent referrals, mostly, in the 3rd or 4th week of the month in 05 and most of 06. While CCAA has clearly increased the number of LID's they are covering compared to the first half of 2006 (see chart/# of days sent) they are sending the referrals so close to the end of the month that they are arriving in the US at the beginning of the next month. This began to emerge in July 2006, as you can see on the (chart/Referral date) and based off the last 4 batches our agency concludes the CCAA will start sending referrals at the beginning of the month (and yes, it had an Astrix).
I would not go psycho over a few days difference in receiving our referral (just in case you're not sure about my mental health hehe). However, I need to change my 'terminology' so that those that are adopting that are reading my blog do not conclude that I'm not too savvy about the China adoption process, or think that I'm overly optimistic, or worse leave with a false assumption.
Concluding: Nothing has changed for our time line (in fact the lady bug ticker at the bottom of the blog has always been set to May 1st), We are still as certain as we can be that we are the 'April batch', but the April batch may arrive in the states at the beginning of May.
Therefore, I will now say that the predictably, unpredictable CCAA may send our referral at the beginning of May. Therefore the new 'terminology' is we will receive our referral in April/May***************************.
Where we are on our agency prediction chart is what is most important to me as they chart every facet of the process down to nearly the minute families get their pictures.
Some years the CCAA has sent an extra batch right before Chinese New Year (CNY was yesterday so we can X that), and last year they sent one batch on February 28. The CCAA has this week off to celebrate their new year and our agency's, just published, chart says that the February referrals will arrive in March. Shoot.
Our wonderful agency puts out their chart of predictions with an Astrix at the end of every prediction sentence. And when I talk with them on the phone, they end or begin every sentence with 'there is no way to be certain'. I whole heartedly agree with them. It is my nature to seek out the pattern and quite frankly CCAA has only 2 identifiable patterns.
1. For 14 years CCAA has sent Chinese children to the USA nearly every month.
2. The CCAA has no pattern.
The CCAA had sent referrals, mostly, in the 3rd or 4th week of the month in 05 and most of 06. While CCAA has clearly increased the number of LID's they are covering compared to the first half of 2006 (see chart/# of days sent) they are sending the referrals so close to the end of the month that they are arriving in the US at the beginning of the next month. This began to emerge in July 2006, as you can see on the (chart/Referral date) and based off the last 4 batches our agency concludes the CCAA will start sending referrals at the beginning of the month (and yes, it had an Astrix).
I would not go psycho over a few days difference in receiving our referral (just in case you're not sure about my mental health hehe). However, I need to change my 'terminology' so that those that are adopting that are reading my blog do not conclude that I'm not too savvy about the China adoption process, or think that I'm overly optimistic, or worse leave with a false assumption.
Concluding: Nothing has changed for our time line (in fact the lady bug ticker at the bottom of the blog has always been set to May 1st), We are still as certain as we can be that we are the 'April batch', but the April batch may arrive in the states at the beginning of May.
Therefore, I will now say that the predictably, unpredictable CCAA may send our referral at the beginning of May. Therefore the new 'terminology' is we will receive our referral in April/May***************************.
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